Erratum to: Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment     

T. C. Johns  J.-F. Royer  I. Höschel  H. Huebener  E. Roeckner  E. Manzini  W. May  J.-L. Dufresne  O. H. Otterå  D. P. van Vuuren  D. Salas y Melia  M. A. Giorgetta  S. Denvil  S. Yang  P. G. Fogli  J. Körper  J. F. Tjiputra  E. Stehfest  C. D. Hewitt 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1269-1270

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A comparison of solar radiative flux above clouds from MODIS with BALTIMOS regional climate model simulations     

Anja Hünerbein  Juergen Fischer  Philip Lorenz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(4):707-713

A comparison study for the solar radiative flux above clouds is presented between the regional climate model system BALTEX integrated model system (BALTIMOS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. For MODIS, an algorithm has been developed to retrieve reflected shortwave fluxes over clouds. The study area is the Baltic Sea catchment area during an 11-month period from February to December 2002. The intercomparison focuses on the variations of the daily and seasonal cycle and the spatial distributions. We found good agreement between the observed and the simulated data with a bias of the temporal mean of 13.6 W/m² and a bias of the spatial mean of 35.5 W/m². For summer months, BALTIMOS overestimates the solar flux with up to 90 W/m² (20%). This might be explained by the insufficient representation of cirrus clouds in the regional climate model.  相似文献   

Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty     

Alexis Hannart  Michael Ghil  Jean-Louis Dufresne  Philippe Naveau 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):585-601

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some definitions, this concept is connected with the related concept of negative learning that was introduced earlier by Oppenheimer et al. (Clim Change 89:155–172, 2008). We illustrate disconcerting learning on several real-life examples and characterize mathematically certain general conditions for its occurrence. We show next that these conditions are met in the current state of our knowledge on climate sensitivity, and illustrate this situation based on an energy balance model of climate. We finally discuss the implications of these results on the development of adaptation and mitigation policy.  相似文献   

Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario     

H. Huebener  M. G. Sanderson  I. Höschel  J. Körper  T. C. Johns  J.-F. Royer  E. Roeckner  E. Manzini  J.-L. Dufresne  O. H. Otterå  J. Tjiputra  D. Salas y Melia  M. Giorgetta  S. Denvil  P. G. Fogli 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):389-403

Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes.  相似文献   

Crater morphology in sandstone targets: The MEMIN impact parameter study     

Anja DUFRESNE  Michael H. POELCHAU  Thomas KENKMANN  Alex DEUTSCH  Tobias HOERTH  Frank SCHÄFER  Klaus THOMA 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(1):50-70

Abstract– Hypervelocity (2.5–7.8 km s^?1) impact experiments into sandstone were carried out to investigate the influence of projectile velocity and mass, target pore space saturation, target‐projectile density contrast, and target layer orientation on crater size and shape. Crater size increases with increasing projectile velocity and mass as well as with increasing target pore space saturation. Craters in water‐saturated porous targets are generally shallower and larger in volume and in diameter than craters from equivalent impacts into dry porous sandstone. Morphometric analyses of the resultant craters, 5–40 cm in diameter, reveal features that are characteristic of all of our experimental craters regardless of impact conditions (I) a large central depression within a fragile, light‐colored central part, and (II) an outer spallation zone with areas of incipient spallation. Two different mechanical processes, grain fragmentation and intergranular tensile fracturing, are recorded within these crater morphologies. Zone (I) approximates the shape of the transient crater formed by material compression, displacement, comminution, and excavation flow, whereas (II) is the result of intergranular tensile fracturing and spallation. The transient crater dimensions are reconstructed by fitting quadric parabolas to crater profiles from digital elevation models. The dimensions of this transient and of the final crater show the same trends: both increase in volume with increasing impact energy, and with increasing water saturation of the target pore space. The relative size of the transient crater (in percent of the final crater volume) decreases with increasing projectile mass and velocity, signifying a greater contribution of spallation on the final crater size when projectile mass and velocity are increased.  相似文献   

Bank filtration in the sandy littoral zone of Lake Tegel (Berlin): Structure and dynamics of the biological active filter zone and clogging processes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Anja Hoffmann  Günter Gunkel 《Limnologica》2011,41(1):10-19

This study focused on clogging processes and on the benthic microalgal and meiofaunal assemblage in the sandy littoral zone of Lake Tegel, which are significantly involved in bank filtration, in a long-term. Our approach combined field studies and “in situ” experiments to highlight the structure of the biological active filter zone as well as the mechanisms and effects of clogging in the interstices that influence the infiltration process.Campaigns to measure “in situ” infiltration rates and hydraulic potential were conducted monthly from March 2004 to April 2005. Meiofaunal abundances and fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) were determined every 6 weeks in freeze cores down to depths of 50 cm. In parallel, concentrations of carbon, nitrogen and chlorophyll a were measured in samples of unfrozen sediment cores, that were divided in 1-cm steps down to depths of ≥10 cm. Similar sediment profiles were generated for analysis of colloidal carbohydrates, extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and proteins between December 2005 and June 2006. Electron microscopy was used to visualize biofilm structure. Long-term experiments with natural FPOM and melamine resin particles as fluorescent tracers were performed to study “in situ” particle retention and transport, respectively. Additionally seston input was quantified during a 1-week period in April 2005.Infiltration rates showed a high temporal and spatial variability, but were not correlated with hydraulic conductivities as hydraulic gradients changed a lot. Likewise a correlation between infiltration rates and hydraulic potentials was not observed, indicating clogging processes. These are triggered to a high extend by biological compounds. In addition, seston input and intermittent gas intrusion are considered to reduce the hydraulic conductivity considerably. No significant “in situ” transport of inert natural fluorescent tracers was observed. However, a complete and permanent clogging of the sandy sediment does not occur, and daily infiltration rates of 0.7-27 L m⁻² h⁻¹ (mean 9 L m⁻² h⁻¹) guarantee a sufficient water supply by bank filtration for decades.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary barrier and fringing reef development of Bora Bora (Society Islands,south Pacific): First subsurface data from the Darwin‐type barrier‐reef system          下载免费PDF全文

Eberhard Gischler  J. Harold Hudson  Marc Humblet  Juan C. Braga  Anton Eisenhauer  Anja Isaack  Flavio S. Anselmetti  Gilbert F. Camoin 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1522-1549

The universally known subsidence theory of Darwin, based on Bora Bora as a model, was developed without information from the subsurface. To evaluate the influence of environmental factors on reef development, two traverses with three cores, each on the barrier and the fringing reefs of Bora Bora, were drilled and 34 uranium‐series dates obtained and subsequently analysed. Sea‐level rise and, to a lesser degree, subsidence were crucial for Holocene reef development in that they have created accommodation space and controlled reef architecture. Antecedent topography played a role as well, because the Holocene barrier reef is located on a Pleistocene barrier reef forming a topographic high. The pedestal of the fringing reef was Pleistocene soil and basalt. Barrier and fringing reefs developed contemporaneously during the Holocene. The occurrence of five coralgal assemblages indicates an upcore increase in wave energy. Age–depth plots suggest that barrier and fringing reefs have prograded during the Holocene. The Holocene fringing reef is up to 20 m thick and comprises coralgal and microbial reef sections and abundant unconsolidated sediment. Fringing reef growth started 8780 ± 50 yr bp ; accretion rates average 5·65 m kyr^?1. The barrier reef consists of >30 m thick Holocene coralgal and microbial successions. Holocene barrier‐reef growth began 10 030 ± 50 yr bp and accretion rates average 6·15 m kyr^?1. The underlying Pleistocene reef formed 116 900 ± 1100 yr bp , i.e. during marine isotope stage 5e. Based on Pleistocene age, depth and coralgal palaeobathymetry, the subsidence rate of Bora Bora was estimated to be 0·05 to 0·14 m kyr^?1. In addition to subsidence, reef development on shorter timescales like in the late Pleistocene and Holocene has been driven by glacioeustatic sea‐level changes causing alternations of periods of flooding and subaerial exposure. Comparisons with other oceanic barrier‐reef systems in Tahiti and Mayotte exhibit more differences than similarities.  相似文献   

The capabilities of the EISCAT Svalbard Radar for inter-hemispheric coordinated studies     

Anja Strφmme 《极地研究(英文版)》2002,13(1)

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Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last ~29 cal ka     

Liv Heinecke  Steffen Mischke  Karsten Adler  Anja Barth  Boris K. Biskaborn  Birgit Plessen  Ingmar Nitze  Gerhard Kuhn  Ilhomjon Rajabov  Ulrike Herzschuh 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,58(3):317-334

We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last ~29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO₂ (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOC _Br ), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, δ¹⁸O _Carb ) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.  相似文献   

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world     

R. Krishnan  T. P. Sabin  R. Vellore  M. Mujumdar  J. Sanjay  B. N. Goswami  F. Hourdin  J.-L. Dufresne  P. Terray 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(3-4):1007-1027

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